In our world of ever-thickening data smog, coin-pricing information has not
been left behind. Joining the venerated Redbook, the blue- and blackbooks,
Coin World Trends, Coin Prices, CDN and CCDN, are a plethora of new price
guides. A recent search of "coins" on Amazon.com produced 1079 separate coin
books, about a third of which appear to offer mostly pricing information. On
the Internet, pricing sources abound; the best of which include Coin
Universe's and NumisMedia's daily price guides. You can also find CCE & CCN
prices on the Net, not to mention auction results. (At Heritage's site, we
now post our prices realized right next to the entire lot description, and
our archives currently go back to January 1997 - as of this
writing, approximately 35 sales representing about 75,000 lots. By next
year, I assume those numbers will double.)
These pricing guides are useful tools, especially when their limitations are
clearly understood. Most of the printed guides state that their authors or
publishers don't buy or sell coins and warn that the values they suggest are
intended only as a general yardstick. Most people who use these guides do
buy and sell coins and must contend with specific prices. This makes the
users of price guides very different from the producers.
When evaluating truly scarce and rare coins, I find it most productive to
view each potential transaction as an independent event. Just as no two
coins are identical, each buying or selling experience or situation should
be considered unique. I try to consider the state of the market in general,
the market temperature of the series, whether or not the coin has waiting
retail buyers, general cash flow and inventory levels of the coin industry,
which major auction sales are coming up and whether those sales contain
similar coins, whether any hoards have recently been discovered, whether the
seller is a regular supplier who gives me "first shot" at any coins offered
for sale (I always pay more for first shot), and so on. And that's before
any observation about how nice the coin is relative to the stated grade!
Most price guides suggest that the values they list are what any motivated
buyer might be willing to pay. You must keep in mind that both buyer and
seller are trying to make the best deal for themselves (hopefully subject to
ethics, and preserving reputation and long-term relationships). Motivation,
or the lack of it, can occur for many different reasons. Perhaps prompted by
wishful thinking, some collectors believe a dealer should always be ready to
make an offer for every coin, and that such offers should always correspond
to a certain price guide's suggestion of value. In many cases, a dealer is
thrilled to oblige, but when it doesn't happen, the seller can become
annoyed, most often with the dealer rather than the producers of the price
guides.
In the context of scarce and rare coins, pricing guides often work to the
benefit of the buyer by setting what the seller views as the upper limit.
Some coins trade so infrequently that by the time a new example becomes
available, all price records are obsolete. Other times, the grade or
scarcity of the coin, or its unusual attractiveness, will justify a price
far higher than anything you are likely to find in print. I've witnessed
numerous instances where buyers would have gladly paid more than the price
guides suggested, but the seller's confidence in the guide's information
made this unnecessary. Anyone who questions a dealer's willingness to
occasionally disregard the price guides need only review the prices realized
from any major auction sale to discover that this happens quite often.
Despite their inherent limitations, pricing guides provide a valuable
service to the hobby and business. There is no question that pricing
information increases the confidence of buyers. What I would caution against
is becoming too dependent on these guides. They are not intended to replace
your individual research and knowledge.
Reviewing auction results and dealer price lists can be both enjoyable and
educational. Viewing lots of coins at major shows and auctions is even
better. Compare such observation with values listed in different pricing
guides and you'll become a better informed and more successful buyer and
seller.