I can't count the times I've been asked, "How's the coin market?" Lately, I tend to respond with imprecise answers, like, "Pretty good", "It depends," or "Fine, thank you." Until quite recently the coin market has followed cycles of varying duration. Often these ups and downs have had a universal impact. Coins were either hot or not.
Times are changing. Our market seems to have become segmented and much more sophisticated. For example, the activity in the coin market now has little influence over those who collect paper money. A few years ago, while coin prices languished, the currency market caught fire. Now coin prices seem to be rising even faster than currency prices.
When the coin market is moving in lots of different directions, that makes dealers far less vulnerable to unified swings in activity. Over the last ten years, we've seen a gradual and comfortable escalation in the value of classic rarities. Many rare coins have proven their worth. Our marketplace is healthy and collector-driven, no longer influenced by speculators, or thought of as a passing fad like the tulip bulb craze in Holland. Let's hope that continues. The willingness of buyers to support the market at the highest levels benefits everyone involved in the hobby by providing stability. To me, the most promising aspect of today's coin market is the fact that, while collector demand has mushroomed, prices are still rather reasonable. How unlike the speculative frenzies of 1980 and 1989!
Thinking about previous opportunities or future possibilities seldom prepares us to deal with current circumstances, but studies into history and futurism are both valuable disciplines. (As a coin dealer and science fiction novelist, I get to do both!) The best advice I can offer about market timing is to seek expert advice, test the water by buying and selling small amounts, and then carefully consider as many options as you can dream up. Now might be an excellent time to sell your collection, take advantage of opportunities to add to it, or simply keep your current holdings intact.
The best time to trade is when doing so suits your individual needs and goals. I hope the days of having to deal with wild and often unreported price fluctuations are past. A well-informed public is what has recently caused demand for rare coins to exceed the supply.
Numismatics is a more mature and liquid marketplace. Values are becoming well established. Information is much more plentiful today than it was ten years ago, and will increase exponentially over the next ten. In my view this coming of age provides wonderful opportunities for buyers and sellers alike.
